This is not an April Fool’s blog despite it being 4/1. I don’t have the current talent/focus to write a good April Fool’s blog. A good one will take the reader on a playful journey where the discovery of deception at the end is a delight. (A bad one will either be annoying or triggering.) So, you will have to settle for some brain science and foreshadowing of the next big April event: the total solar eclipse.
Just because I can’t predict the future, doesn’t mean I won’t try.
One of main things our brains are built for is predicting the future, the problem is, they are not very good at it. We learn so we can figure out what will happen next and be able to survive. When something bad happens, we learn to anticipate something like it happening again (when this system goes into overdrive it produces anxiety). We also associate whatever was around at the time something bad happened with the bad thing, so the next time we see these cues (triggers) we know to be ready for trouble.
Baby cows are scary little monsters!
Horses do the same thing. Some horses are afraid of the weirdest things. I had a horse, Obie, who could be rock steady around flapping trash bags, barking dogs, and wheeling bicycles, but if he saw a calf he thought his life was over. This horse was a BLM mustang who was captured on the range and then adopted out to me. I assume that at some point in his early life he had a run in with a mama cow that he didn’t care to ever repeat. So, when he saw a calf, his brain told him “Danger is nearby, do whatever it takes to get away.” This system would have worked great for him if he had stayed on the range his whole life, where he had the freedom to avoid calves when he saw them. But when he came to live in the human world he had to deal with more complex issues and demands. There were expectations placed on him to perform at shows where there might be calves in pens. The reality of being at a show like this is that the calves in pens don’t come with protective mothers. He was perfectly safe (at least from angry cows) in this particular environment. This danger response was no longer useful for him.
This is where another part of our brains comes into play. The pre-frontal cortex is there to judge the signals from the danger system and take in new information. One of the signals Obie could have used was my reaction to the calves in pens. Was I afraid of them? Noticing that my system was calm (which it rarely was at horse shows!) would have told him to investigate further—which was how he approached flapping trash bags. He would look at them, and smell, them and determine that while they made a lot of motion and noise they were harmless.
The future will be catastrophic.
One of the danger responses that our brains do is going to the worst possible scenario and fixating on it. This is called catastrophizing. Sometimes exploring the worst possible scenario is beneficial because we can then plan what to do if that happens, determine what we might need to be able to survive, and then let it go. But in catastrophizing we assume the worst will happen. Some of this is going on in my community right now. I live in the Texas Hill Country in an area that will be right in the path of the total solar eclipse. Authorities are predicting the population of my county will double for the few days around the eclipse. Traffic will be bad, supplies in stores will be in high demand. The city council is looking at data from what other cities experienced during that 2017 total eclipse. Statistics vary widely though, so it is a difficult prediction to make about what will really happen. The other thing I’m noticing are the comments on Nextdoor and Facebook: the phone system will go down, we will lose power due to over stressing the grid, people will break down fences and camp on ranches. Could any of this happen? Yes, but it is the worst-case scenario. People are catastrophizing.
What is the difference between catastrophizing and preparedness planning?
Catastrophizing:
Makes assumptions based on patchy data, inferences, and fear created scenarios.
Uses exaggeration.
Creates a tone of panic, doesn’t offer solutions.
Creates long, in-accurate, cause and effect chains.
Preparedness Planning:
Searches for as much available data as possible. (May not be able to get it all.) Plots out potential scenarios based on probability.
Assesses needs based on information.
Looks at available resources and makes plans for acquisition and distribution.
Expects a margin of error.
Comes up with multiple solutions to estimated problems.
“What is about to happen might be difficult, but I can handle it.”
Both of these methods of thinking will come from an activated response to something we noticed in the environment that points to something potentially happening in the future. Catastrophizing can quickly get off the rails and into very unlikely territory and cause additional shut down (depression) or freakout (anxiety) Preparedness planning tends to bring in a feeling of being regulated. The assumption is that “what is about to happen might be difficult, but I can handle it.” One way to check in with yourself is to ask questions, such as “how likely is this?” And also notice language, use of long term but vague language such as “always, every, and forever” typically accompany catastrophizing. In the case of the eclipse “Is the power grid going to fail and everything in my fridge will go bad?” Probably not, but will there be some stress on the power grid and there might be some unreliable service, I should probably make sure my phone is charged and I have some flash lights. “Will I get trapped in my car forever and die of dehydration?” If I make sure I have everything I need (not necessarily will want—but need) I won’t have to drive. And I can make sure I have a water bottle in my car, and that my gas tank is full, in case I do have to drive.